Following AZ & FL Primaries, Experts Assess Impact of Latino Voters on 2010 Elections
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE |
CONTACT: America's Voice |
Following AZ & FL Primaries, Experts Assess Impact of Latino Voters on 2010 Elections
New Report Shows Latinos Could Play Decisive Role in 41 Battleground Races in 12 States this November
WASHINGTON - August 25 - Today, leading experts on Latino voter trends and the politics of immigration reform gathered on a conference call to analyze Tuesday's primary results in Arizona and Florida, and assess the influence of Latino voters and the immigration debate on elections in these states, as well as California, Colorado, Nevada, and other areas in the run-up to November.
Also today, America's Voice released a new version of the report, The Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections, which tracks 41 key races in 12 states where Latino voters are poised to play a decisive role this year. This previously-issued report, updated through yesterday's primary results, analyzes trends in Latino voting behavior and provides a detailed analysis of the way the immigration is playing out in these gubernatorial, Senate, and House contests.
The impact of Latino voters on 2010 races will be a major storyline this cycle - especially in states like Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. Lynn Tramonte, Deputy Director of America's Voice, said, "As our report makes clear, Latino voters are poised to influence a number of battleground races across the country. As primary season wraps up, a trend is emerging where Republican candidates tacked hard right on immigration during the primaries, but are struggling to figure out how to come back to the center in the general election so they can compete for Latino and other swing voters. We will be watching races in California, Arizona, Florida, Colorado, and elsewhere to see whether Republican candidates can rebuild their image with Latinos, whether Democratic candidates confidently lean into the immigration issue to vie for this constituency, and whether candidates in both parties finally realize that comprehensive immigration reform is a pragmatic position that helps them both win Latino voters and win the middle."
According to Republican political strategist Ana Navarro, "Intensity surrounding the Arizona immigration law in Republican primaries will decrease in races nationwide as we head into the general election. These candidates now have to put together a winning formula for November, and that won't involve antagonizing Hispanic voters."
While polling shows that many Latinos are disillusioned by the failure to move forward on comprehensive immigration reform in Congress, the recent controversies over the Arizona SB1070 immigration law and the way that some candidates have embraced punitive immigration policies have also re-energized many Latino voters. According to Arturo Vargas, Executive Director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), "The current debate around immigration is playing a big role in what Latino voters say. We recently conducted a poll among Latino voters in key states and they told us the issue of immigration increases their likelihood of voting and even influences their selection of candidates. In fact, when asked what are their top concerns, most of the respondents told us ‘immigration.' That's ahead of jobs, the economy, and healthcare, among others. This is the first time we've ever seen immigration top the list of concerns among Latino voters and that is very significant."
According to public opinion analyst Fernand Amandi, Vice President of Bendixen & Amandi, "While a harsh immigration position may be a benefit in some Republican primaries in the short term, it's bad politics for general elections and a scorched-earth strategy for the long-term."
The America's Voice report includes the following analysis:
- Races to Watch Where Latino Voters Will Be Key: The report tracks 41 key races in 12 states-27 U.S. House races, eight U.S. Senate races and six gubernatorial races-and provides statistics and background on Latino voters. Detailed profiles of the Latino electorate are included for each of these twelve states - AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IL, NV, NM, NY, PA, TX, and VA.
- The Role of Immigration in Each Race: In addition to Latino voter statistics, the report includes a detailed description of the way the candidates' have been discussing immigration issues in each race profiled in the report. As recent polling has documented, immigration has jumped to the top of the list of key issues for Latino voters and promises to be a major factor in 2010 races.
- Nearly One-in-Five Congressional Districts Is At Least 25% Latino: The report also identifies the 79 congressional districts in which Latinos comprise at least 25% of the population, and a significant number of the voting population as well. Fifty-four of these seats are currently controlled by Democratic Members of Congress and 25 are controlled by Republican Members of Congress. These are districts where Latino voters have become a major factor, and where the electorate continues to grow and impact local and national politics.
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Anti-Latino Hate Crime is Spreading, Says Report
by Jamilah King
On the heels of a horrific anti-Muslim attack in New York City on Tuesday night, there’s new disturbing evidence that hate crimes are on the rise across the country for Latinos.
The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is reporting an upward tick in anti-Latino hate crimes, and apparently it’s a general trend that’s been in the works for years. Hate crimes against Latinos had already increased in each of the four years between 2003 to 2007, according to FBI statistics. After taking a slight dip last year, the trend seems to be picking up just as the national debate over immigration reform rages on.
SPLC cited some pretty startling examples. There’s the case in Maricopa County, Ariz., (home to Sheriff Joe Arpaio) where Juan Varela was killed and his brother was shot in the neck by Gary Thomas Kelley. According to the U.S. attorney’s office in Phoenix, Kelley pointed a gun at Valera and said, “Hurry up and go back to Mexico or you’re gonna die.” The dead man was a third-generation, native-born American, reports SPLC.
There’s also news that since April, there have been 11 assaults on Mexicans in the Staten Island City of Port Richmond. The Los Angeles Times recently reported that there have been 26 suspected hate crimes in the city this year, and of the 11 proven assaults, all but one is considered a bias-related crime carried out by the city’s black residents against Mexicans.
The report also takes great aims to place blame for the uptick squarely on the shoulders of politicians’ whose hefty anti-immigrant talk has severely driven anti-Latino sentiment. In one notorious, Texas Republican Reps. Louie Gohmert and Debbie Riddle warned the world of “terrorist babies.” Both men claimed pregnant terrorists were hatching a plan to sneak across the border and give birth to future terrorists who’d finish off a plan to “destroy our way of life.” FBI Director Tom Fuentes eventually took to CNN to debunk the rumor.
“There was never a credible report—or any report, for that matter … to indicate that there was such a plan for these ‘terror babies’ to be born,” Fuentes said.
It’s clear that when it comes to the “Ground Zero mosque” debate and the furor over immigration reform, hot-headed political rhetoric has very real life and death consequences.
Immigration Policy Gets Welcome Dose of Common Sense
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 31, 2010
12:11 PM
CONTACT: America's Voice
Marjorie Valbrun
202-463-8602 x305
press@americasvoiceonline.org
Immigration Policy Gets Welcome Dose of Common Sense
ICE Directive Says We Shouldn’t Waste Resources Going After Soon-to-be Legal Residents
WASHINGTON - August 31 - A recent memo from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Assistant Secretary John Morton is rooted in basic law enforcement principles, but it is already being attacked by Administration opponents as “amnesty.” The policy applies only to a defined group of people who are in deportation proceedings, but have already applied for and are about to obtain legal immigration status. It directs ICE to halt their deportation proceedings until a decision is made on the immigration application, freeing up resources to go after others who are not about to become legal, taxpaying residents. In company with the ICE leader’s commitment to focus on “the worst of the worst,” this development shows that some of the agency’s enforcement priorities are changing for the benefit of community safety, common sense, the American taxpayer, and family unity.
According to Lynn Tramonte, Deputy Director of America’s Voice, “This is a wise use of law enforcement resources and a welcome injection of common sense into ICE policies. Instead of clogging already burdened immigration courts with people who are about to become legal residents, it allows the government to focus on dangerous criminals and people who mean our country harm. While there are still many more changes that need to be made to immigration enforcement programs in the name of efficiency and effectiveness, this is a strong step forward.”
It's important to understand that this memo covers only a small fraction of immigrants in the U.S. illegally — the 17,000 who are in active deportation proceedings, have also applied for immigration status through existing laws, like the family-based immigration system, and are likely to have those cases approved. It won’t give a benefit to anyone who doesn’t qualify for one already; it won’t prevent anyone whose application is denied from being deported in the future; it won’t apply to anyone who poses a threat to public safety; and it won’t end deportation proceedings for the majority of people who are in them.
Despite the common sense nature of the ICE memo, a host of Republican voices in Congress, such as Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), are clearly more concerned about opposing anything the Obama Administration does than about making wise use of taxpayer resources. Despite Senator Grassley’s reputation as a budget hawk, he opposes this effort to improve government efficiency and reacted to the news by saying, “Unfortunately, it appears this is more evidence that the Obama administration would rather circumvent Congress and give a free pass to illegal immigrants who have already broken our law.”
According to Tramonte, “Americans want solutions to the broken immigration system – not ‘leaders’ whose only strategy on immigration is to block progress at every turn. Does Senator Grassley truly believe that it’s efficient or intelligent to tie up law enforcement resources going after someone who’s about to become a legal resident? This ICE memo is a step forward, in line with the wishes of the American people. The public also understands that we cannot fully fix the broken immigration system until we pass comprehensive immigration reform. Instead of calling every move by the Obama Administration ‘amnesty,’ Senator Grassley should get working on real and lasting immigration reform.”
As Goes Arizona, Whither Goes the Nation?
by Randall Amster
Our sitting governor gets stumped during the "introductions" portion of a televised debate, winds up righting herself with the glorious phrase, "I have did everything I could do," and then proceeds to storm out of a post-debate media session when the questions get too hard. The federal government has sued our swaggering Sheriff Joe Arpaio for failing to comply with information requests pertinent to a wider investigation over his Kafkaesque policies and practices. And State Sen. Russell Pearce, sponsor of the infamous SB 1070, continues to prattle on about "anchor babies" and the need to abolish the 14th Amendment to save the republic.
This might all be funny if it wasn't indicative of a pattern that is being emulated in other states.
Even after her gut-wrenching and now legendary "pregnant pause" during the debate, Jan Brewer still leads her Democratic rival Terry Goddard by double-digits in the polls largely due to the mere fact that she signed SB 1070 into law. No wonder candidates for high office from Florida to California (both states with significant Hispanic populations) are parroting this strategy and explicitly running on an anti-immigrant platform. From the Eastern Seaboard to the Rust Belt, states are looking to imitate Arizona's "zero tolerance" approach to immigration (an apt phrasing if ever there was one). Even on a popular train route across the northern U.S., which doesn't cross any borders, passengers are subjected to routine "where are your papers?" inquiries based largely on their outward appearance.
The truly remarkable thing about this metastasizing xenophobia is that it is based entirely on empirical falsehoods, by most respectable accounts.
Illegal immigration in the U.S. has been sharply declining over the past decade. Violence on the U.S. side of the border with Mexico has likewise been steadily dropping. Crime rates among immigrant communities are on par with or lower than those with similar demographics. Immigrants (legal and illegal alike) put more into the public coffers than they take out through social services. Obviously we can play these sorts of "lies, damn lies, and statistics" games indefinitely, going back and forth citing studies and sources to support divergent positions. But this type of "battle of the experts" bantering gets us nowhere productive, and misses the larger points that most need our attention.
Before speaking to some of those "bigger picture" issues, a few more salient lessons from the desert are in order before they wash up on your local shores.
It turns out that the governor's inner circle of advisors includes a number with various personal and professional stakes in the prison-expanding revenues likely to be generated by the influx of immigrant detainees yielded by SB 1070. The governor is guided by lobbyists and close operatives of the Corrections Corporation of America, which capitalizes to the tune of millions per month on warehousing transferred undocumented individuals. While the racialized nature of "breathing while brown" laws is obvious, equally so is the financially interlocking character of the legislative parties involved and their pecuniary interests. It is likely that similarly dubious connections exist whenever race-baiting politicians fan the flames of ignorance and persecution.
Another intriguing wrinkle from the annals of Arizona is the blatant hijacking of the Green Party ballot line, ostensibly by Republican operatives with a stake in siphoning votes from Democrats in contested districts and generally gumming up the electoral works with more platforms for their narrow ideology. Under a quirk in Arizona law that allows individuals to appear on the general ballot if they receive even a single vote (their own, perhaps) in an open primary without an official minor party nominee, Republicans managed to place stealth candidates on the roster in a number of contests around the state. Knowing that some left-leaning voters will choose the Green candidate without further inspecting their actual views and values, this could be sufficient to tip the balance in close races toward the Republicans. And under the state's Clean Elections law, these calculating efforts even wind up being funded by the taxpayers.
I suspect that some of these tales may resonate with themes prevalent in your area. Or soon will.
The tack of "blaming the victim" and passing the scapegoating buck down to the lower rungs of the social ladder is a tried-and-true political ploy. In a time when powerful interests have been consolidating their reign through various forms of legal chicanery and open financial thievery, we are likely to see (and have in fact seen) a rise in overt xenophobia to deflect our outrage from the robber barons to the huddled masses. Sociologists sometimes call this a "moral panic" when it reaches widespread levels of knee-jerk persecution of "the other" - but it might more aptly be called an "immoral panic" since its architects are happy to advance their entrepreneurial interests at the expense of vulnerable segments of the populations. Most horrifyingly, this tack sometimes comes with bloodshed, hate crimes, and other forms of victimization in its wake.
You may be tempted to buy into the notion that "illegal immigrants" and other "undesirables" are the source of all our social ills and economic woes. Perhaps your fear in these uncertain times motivates a subtle embrace of such notions. The sensationalization of crimes by people of color - while the crimes of the well-to-do go far less reported - contributes to an air of demonization. The power elite are largely hidden from view and immune from direct contestation, whereas the poor migrant worker or "welfare queen" in our midst can be slurred in polite company without much fear of societal repercussions. Political uncertainty and (in particular) economic anxiety need an outlet, and the construction of the dangerous "other" as a lightning rod for these purposes is part and parcel of the Machiavellian playbook.
In this light, it can plausibly be argued that Arizona has stepped to the national fore of the immigration debate precisely because it is also within hailing distance of ground zero for the financial meltdown. Rampant foreclosures, major property devaluations, teeming unemployment, the erosion of public healthcare, a race-to-the-bottom education system, firewall tax increases of last resort - and only the prisons as a tangible growth industry. This, then, is the "Arizona Model" of imposed austerity, public sphere evisceration, scapegoating, and prison profiteering. Is this a trial balloon, on a statewide scale, for a rightwing power grab par excellence? Not to trespass upon another state's image, but: if they can make it here, can they make it anywhere?
Take heed friends, lest you find that as goes Arizona, so goes the rest of the nation.
Randall Amster, J.D., Ph.D., teaches Peace Studies at Prescott College, and is the Executive Director of the Peace & Justice Studies Association. His most recent book is Lost In Space: The Criminalization, Globalization, and Urban Ecology of Homelessness (LFB Scholarly 2008).
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